Context

The Coastal Landscape of Tampa Bay

The Tampa Bay Coastal Master Plan (TBCMP) encompasses a seven-county region—Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota—home to more than 4 million people (about twice the population of Nebraska despite being 10 times smaller in area). The region's population is spread across communities of diverse cultures, socioeconomic backgrounds, and a wide range of geographies, from urban waterfronts to rural inland communities. The region boasts significant ecological and economic assets1, including world-renowned Gulf beaches, Florida’s largest open-water estuary—Tampa Bay— as well as the Sarasota Bay Estuary and seven designated aquatic preserves.

The region supports an array of vital habitats such as seagrass meadows, mangrove forests, salt marshes, salt barrens, sponge beds, marine springs, oyster reefs, hardbottom, freshwater wetlands, and native uplands. These natural systems provide essential ecosystem services like food, shelter, water filtration, and storm protection for a wide variety of species. Many of these species are federally protected under the Endangered Species Act, including the loggerhead and Kemp’s ridley sea turtles, smalltooth sawfish, Gulf sturgeon, whooping crane, gopher tortoise, West Indian manatee, and many others.

Those ecosystems are inextricably linked to the local economy and livelihoods of residents. The region’s coastal resources support valuable working waterfront industries, including fisheries, seafood production, and ecotourism.

1 Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council (2021). The Value of Tampa Bay: Ecosystem Services and Economic Contributions. https://tbrpc.org/valueoftampabay

Intertidal coastal habitat of Cockroach Bay Nature Preserve in Hillsborough County.

What’s at Risk?

Over the past century, the Tampa Bay region has experienced significant population growth and coastal development—often at the expense of wetlands and other natural systems that once helped to regulate flooding. While water is central to the region’s identity and economy, it also poses serious risks. Both coastal and inland flooding threaten the safety, property, and livelihoods of Tampa Bay’s communities.

Key Risk Indicators:

Since 2020, there have been 28 flooding and heavy rain events causing over $10 million in damages—none of which were linked to tropical storms or hurricanes (NOAA's NCEI Storm Event Database).
Tampa Bay is considered the most vulnerable location in the U.S. to storm surge flooding, with a potential $175 billion in damages from a single major event (Karen Clark and Co.).
50% of the region's population lives on ground elevations below 10 feet.
In Pinellas County, 1 in 5 built properties is at risk of flooding from a Category 1 hurricane (Sampson and Taylor, 2022).
By 2045, daily tidal flooding could result in $2.9 billion in lost property value, with permanent sea level rise expected to erode an additional $34 million annually from sales, tourism, and property taxes. These losses could increase more than five-fold by 2070 (Tampa Bay Partnership: Making the Economic Case for Resiliency, 2022).
Every $1 invested in resilience projects yields an estimated $2.27 in savings.

This data paints a clear picture: the risks are real, growing, and expensive. Meaningful investment in climate adaptation is not just a precaution—it is an economic imperative. Protecting the Tampa Bay region’s most vulnerable communities is essential to securing long-term resilience and sustained prosperity for the region.

A street covered with storm surge by Hurricane Idalia in Patrician Point, a neighborhood in St. Petersburg, Florida.

Confronting the Challenges

There are three key reasons the Tampa Bay region needs a Coastal Master Plan:

1. To adapt to worsening environmental conditions,

As the region faces rising sea levels, groundwater intrusion, increased coastal flooding, and shoreline erosion, communities must prepare for and adapt to these shifting environmental realities. The Coastal Master Plan marks a pivotal step toward developing adaptation pathways that acknowledge this evolving landscape and provide immediate, actionable steps for coexisting with rising waters.

2. To move beyond reactive flood response, and

Currently, flood management efforts are largely focused on storm response and infrastructure recovery. While these are vital, they often overshadow the need for long-term strategies to mitigate future storm impacts and address environmental degradation. The Coastal Master Plan helps shift this balance—prioritizing proactive risk reduction alongside emergency response.

3. To coordinate across jurisdictions for maximum impact.

Finally, since water does not adhere to jurisdictional boundaries, flood resilience efforts must be unified across the region. All seven counties require consistent tools, resources, and decision-making frameworks to ensure effective and equitable protection. The Coastal Master Plan leverages existing regional partnerships to strengthen coordination, engage more communities, and advance climate resilience across Tampa Bay.

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